Posts in Behavioral Finance

The duckweed riddle: when wrong models give right answers

Shane Frederick’s Cognitive Reflection Test — one of the most widely used measures in behavioral science — poses three questions designed to see if you can override your gut with deliberate thinking. The third goes like this: In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for the patch to cover half of the lake?

March 23, 2026